I was listening to a news cast about President Trump’s medical treatment at Walter Reed hospital and how his personal physician said that he was doing well and might even be discharged today.  This is in spite of the fact that he is supposedly on a course of Remdesivir which is a five-day course of medication that is normally administered in a hospital so they can monitor side effects and possible adverse reactions.   He was admitted to the hospital on Friday so one wonders why he would be discharged on Monday prior to the completion of the full course of medication. 

And then I saw that he got into his motorcade to do a lap around Walter Reed so he could wave to his supporters and the press.  I’m sure the two Secret Service personnel driving Trump were thrilled at being in a closed-up vehicle with an individual who is still highly contagious with COVID 19. But, then again, Trump probably views the agents as expendable and the President got a small dose of adoration that he so desperately needs, so I’m sure he views it as a good use of is time and hgovernment personnel.   The attending physician at Walter Reed was livid at this display of ‘irresponsible behavior.’

One has to wonder why someone would pull such a stunt.  And then it dawned on me as I was watching all of this unfold.  Trump’s life is all about optics – how things look; what the ratings are; what is any particular action going to do to his ‘brand.’ So, in this instance, he is more concerned with appearing to be well than actually taking steps to ensure his well-being and those around him.  This is no doubt why there has been a stream of conflicting information coming from the White House and Trump’s personal doctor.   As seems to always be the case with information coming out of this administration, it is all about appearances – facts be damned.

Trump wanted people to think he was wealthier than he actually is and was a more successful businessman than he really is, but the publication of his tax information blew a hole in that façade.  Not only is he not as rich as he would like everyone to believe, but the fact is he is in debt to the tune of over $400 million to some, at this point, unknown creditors.   The emperor has no clothes!

Most people who were in the President’s situation at Walter Reed would follow the advice of the medical professionals, stay in the hospital until the medical professionals told them it was safe for them to leave and, most importantly, would remain in isolation and avoid contact with anyone not wearing full PPE to avoid further spreading the virus.  But Trump will be Trump and must put on a show, no matter the cost to other people or himself. 

I think this is the trait about Trump that will be his ultimate downfall – physically, financially and politically.  Trump’s biggest problem is that he will never admit he is simply a human being like the rest of us.  All of us normal humans have strengths and weaknesses.  We all get sick from time to time.  We all make mistakes.   We all know people who are smarter than we are in some areas.  We all know people who are more talented in some areas.  In short, we are all human.

Trump, on the other hand, tries to portray himself as one who is not human.  If you look back on his speeches, they are filled with hyperbolic statements about how he is the greatest, the smartest, the richest.  Remember shortly after he took office and he made the statement that he knew more about ISIS than the generals?  Really?

Most of us have made peace with the fact that we are, in fact, humans and as such we have all of the normal attributes of humans.  We are fallible.  We make mistakes.  We get ill.  Sometimes we do stupid things.  Most of us can laugh at ourselves.  But Trump, for whatever reason, just cannot admit that he is human with all of the attendant characteristics.

He can’t admit to making any mistakes.  He routinely claims that he is smarter than everyone and knows more about any given subject than experts in the field.  Even though he got (read “bought”) deferments from the military, he routinely touts his bravery and courage.   He continues to tell the tale about how he is a self-made businessman when the facts are that he received over $400 million from his father, filed for bankruptcy six times and is in a place financially where no American bank will loan him money.  His entire life has been about building a façade around his ‘brand’.  There is no reason that we should expect anything different about his health or medical treatment.

If Trump were still a ‘developer’ being driven around Manhattan in a limo, trying to get his mug in the NYT society pages, and being a ‘reality TV’ star, his obsession with optics wouldn’t really matter.   If the house of cards collapsed it would only result in more bankruptcies and negative press.  But now that he is president of the United States, this obsession of optics over substance makes the stakes so much higher. 

As long as Trump will not admit that he is a mere mortal, warts and all, like the rest of us, he jeopardizes the country, all Americans, himself and everyone around him.  Right now, I would just like a real human being in the White House.

I know a few days ago in one of these posts I said that I would prefer anyone, a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or even Mr. Ed, the infamous talking horse from the 60’s TV series, as president over Trump.   I made a mistake.  I’d prefer a human.  My apologies to Mr. Ed.

“Being human is difficult.  Becoming human is a life-long process.  To be truly human is a gift.”  Abraham Heschel.

First of all, I hope that President Trump and Melania and everyone else caught up in this COVID event recovers quickly and completely.  I would not wish this virus on anyone.    It is extremely unfortunate and certainly puts the entire country in a bit of a crisis.  Frankly, I hope this will serve as a wakeup call for all of those people who are not taking this virus seriously. 

The fact that the Trumps contracted this virus and have been not abiding by medical and scientific guidelines points to a much bigger problem that has been plaguing this country for a while now.   There are many, many examples of politicians that are driving now or who have driven in the past, public policies that are not based on facts, data and science.  Public policy made on the basis of emotion, political expediency, personal beliefs or ‘alternate facts’, generally lead to bad public policy.

We have to get to a point where we can all get on the same page with respect to facts and data and then we can have an intelligent discussion about the way forward.  Climate change is a prime example.  Virtually all credible climate scientists and the overwhelming conclusion based upon the data from many, many studies indicate that global warming is real.  Today’s civilization is having an adverse impact on the climate that will put future generations in peril if we don’t do something. 

If we can get to the point where we can agree to these facts, then we can have discussions about what to do about it.  There are, no doubt, a wide range of options and paths that various countries could take to mitigate these impacts.  But that is the discussion we should be having.  It is a given that not everyone will agree on specific mitigation measures but by agreeing that climate change is real we can more than likely come up with compromises that, although they may not be perfect, at least allow us to make some progress in addressing the issue.  If the discussion is about whether or not climate change exists, in the face of overwhelming evidence that it does, we are just wasting time and it will lead to public policies that will not do anything to solve the problem.

There are countless other examples.  Gun violence in this country.  Something like 40,000 people a year are killed by guns in this country every year.  That’s just a fact.  You can’t just put your head in the sand and say its not true because it’s pretty easy to verify. So, let’s all agree to start with that fact.  Most would assume that the deaths of 40,000 people a year is not really acceptable.   The discussion should be ‘what can we do about it?’ rather than ‘is it true?’ 

We have the highest incarceration rate of any country in the world.  That’s a fact.  And a disproportionate number of those incarcerated are people of color.  That’s a fact.  The conversation we should be having and what should be driving our public policies is ‘why is that the case?’  “What can we do about it?”  Again, not everyone is going to agree about the next steps but at least if we all start with the same set of facts, there is a better chance that we can come up with policies to try to address this issue.

Abortion is another issue that is completely emotional and devoid of facts in trying to drive public policy.  The facts are, there are 500,000 to 600,000 abortions in this country every year.  The fact is there are less than 150,000 adoptions in this country every year.  The fact is there are already about 400,000 kids in the foster care system.   If you ignore these facts, it’s easy to throw up your arms and say that you are against abortion and Roe v. Wade should be overturned.  Great.  What then?   People are not going to magically stop having sex and women are not going to magically stop getting pregnant.  So, what happens to all of these ‘extra’ babies that are born?    The facts and data are easy to verify.  If you just ignore the facts and implement policies based upon wishful thinking, it virtually always creates more problems than it solves and that is exactly what will happen in this case.

And don’t confuse this argument to use facts and data to drive public policy as an excuse to argue that such a course would be completely devoid of emotion, compassion and empathy.  They are not mutually exclusive.  The argument I am making is that you need both and we are on a dangerous course to implement public policies completely devoid of facts, data and science.

This latest incident with Trump and his inner circle is an ‘in your face’ example of what happens when public policies ignore facts, data and science.  The Rose Garden reception to tout the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court was completely contrary to all existing CDC and medical guidelines – people standing shoulder to shoulder with most not wearing masks – and here we are.

The road ahead for this country is going to continue to be extremely rocky until we get back to the point where facts, data and science are used to drive public policy.  The coronavirus follows the rules of science and medicine.  If we try to use ‘alternate facts’ to fight it, it will win.   Keep your distance and wear a damned mask!

I wrote today’s post last night before the news broke about President and Mrs. Trump both testing positive for COVID.  This news should be a wakeup call for us all.  President Trump lives in a bubble – and he still contracted this insidious disease.  No doubt the conspiracy theorists are busy at work this morning spinning all kinds of stories about how this came to be.  However, the bottom line is that this virus does not care what kind of conspiracies theories are thrown out there.  It doesn’t care what you personally think.  It doesn’t care if you are a Republican or a Democrat, young or old.  It is going to go about its business of efficiently infecting people, making many of them sick and ultimately killing some of them.  The next time you decide to not wear a mask or flout social distancing guidelines or just do something stupid, you should think about President Trump who was living in a bubble – and the virus got him.  We, as a nation, are not going to get our arms around this until we all start taking this seriously.  Like I said, the remainder of this post was written last night.

I can’t believe I am writing this.  This is the United States of America and here I am, for the first time in my life, reading headlines like: “Cities, states and businesses brace for election unrest in US”¹ There is another headline in the New York Times about ‘election doomsday scenarios.’   This is insane.  The following paragraphs are from the first article.

“Many of those tracking the potential security threats say red flags abound. For example, some experts interviewed by CNN pointed to increased online chatter among extremists about the prospects of armed and bloody confrontations on election day. After President Donald Trump told the far-right group Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by,” during the September 29 presidential debate, and then segued to saying “Somebody’s got to do something about Antifa and the left because this is not a right-wing problem,” members of the Proud Boys immediately celebrated online, updating their logo to feature the President’s “stand by” comments, and touting Trump’s comments as a signal of support.

“Authorities have also noticed the unprecedented consumer demand for guns and ammunition: Americans have bought a record $13.8 billion in firearms through August of this year, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which tracks retail sales. Ammunition sales through June have more than doubled, from a year ago, said NSSF spokesman Mark Oliva.

“The common calibers are very difficult to find; people are snapping them up,” Oliva said. Historically, he said, firearms sales rise during presidential election years, particularly if buyers worry that a change in administration may lead to new regulations.”¹

Think about what is going on here.  We have far-right and far-left extremists, both of whom are heavily armed, gearing up for a possible conflict stoked by none other than the President of the United States.  Cities, counties and states are formulating plans to deal with conflicts that might arise during and after the election.  And more and more citizens are buying guns.   This is crazy.  And it is due solely to one man – Donald Trump. 

I know these election fears are real.  My daughter and her mom were originally planning to leave New York and come here before Thanksgiving.  Now they are planning to arrive at the end of this month because they don’t want to be in New York during and after the election.  I know people who don’t own firearms who are wondering if they should.  Is this really the country we want to live in?  A country where the President of the United States is democracy’s biggest enemy?

There is only one reason we are in this position.  It has nothing to do with the ‘fake news’ media.  It has nothing to do with the Democrats.  It is due to a man who tells a far-right group like the Proud Boys to ‘stand back and stand by’ rather than unequivocally condemning white supremacists and due to his constant and totally unfounded attacks on the American electoral system.

And speaking of attacks on the American electoral system, the Texas governor (Republican) issued a proclamation stating that there will be only 1 drop-off location for absentee ballots in each county!!  Texas is bigger than Montana.  In spite of the fancy rhetoric about being necessary to preserve election integrity, this is just blatant voter suppression.  Harris County where Houston is, has a population of over 4 million people and an area of almost 1800 squares miles.  And now it will have exactly one place to drop off absentee ballots.  This is just another example of how the Republican Party has devolved into a party whose sole principle is to win elections at any cost – even at the cost of our democracy. 

The Republicans in almost every state have filed numerous lawsuits to make it harder for Americans to vote.  America already has one of the lowest voter turnouts for industrialized countries.  You would think that if politicians really cared about democracy, they would do everything they can to encourage people to vote.  However, as I stated previously, the Republican party (particularly the Trump Republican party) does not represent a majority of Americans so they are doing everything in their power to restrict access to voting with the sole goal to retain power at any cost.

Here in Montana, Trump and the Republicans sued to stop Governor Bullock’s order allowing counties to use mail-in voting from taking effect.  A Federal judge ruled against them stating that there was no evidence of wide spread voter fraud from mail-in ballots in Montana.  But, nonetheless, they tried to interfere with people’s ability to cast ballots in this election, even here in Montana with our three electoral votes.

One can hope that we are all wrong, the election will come and go, and life will just go on with no conflicts, unrest and legal misadventures.  However, I believe that Trump knows that the only thing that stands between him and indictments and prosecution for financial crimes is winning reelection.  Given that scenario, he is capable of anything and because of that, I believe this could get really ugly, particularly if it is a close election.   I have never wanted to be wrong so badly in all of my life. 

1. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/extremism-violence-election-preparations-invs/index.html
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/us/politics/election-doomsday-scenarios.html

Well I’ve had a day to try to digest the unsavory meal served up during the presidential debate.  I woke up this morning feeling like I had consumed a meal of half cooked skunk and had washed it down with glasses of cod liver oil.  What an ordeal.  And to think, we have two more ‘debates’ between Trump and Biden.  After the debacle last night, the commission says they are going to change the rules, but I still don’t have high hopes the next two debates will be any better.  Trump is just incapable of controlling his basest instincts.

The reactions around the world were as expected – shock, dismay, sadness – nothing positive.  I’m sure there are those who think Trump’s ‘America First’ policy is really a license to tell the rest of the world to go screw themselves.  We’re America, we’re the best, we’re the greatest, we don’t need anyone else.  Let’s not forget, other recent examples of unbridled nationalism – Mussolini and Hitler! 

Trump has done a superb job of alienating countries that were once our staunch allies.   The following are a few of the reactions as reported in the New York Times.

“Of course, the ultimate arbiter will be the American voter,” said Ulrich Speck, an analyst with the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “But there is a consensus in Europe that this is getting out of hand, and this debate is an indicator of the bad shape of the American democracy.”¹

“The debate was a joke, a low point, a shame for the country,” Markus Feldenkirchen of the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel posted on Twitter. “Roaring, insults, two over-70s who interrupt each other like 5-year-olds — and a moderator who loses all control. The trigger, of course: Trump’s uncouth, undignified behavior.”¹

Jeremy Shapiro, a former American diplomat who is now research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that foreigners would probably view the debate “as another sign of the degradation of American democracy,” as some Americans do. The debate will not change foreign opinions of Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, he said, but underneath the spectacle is something more troubling.

Both allies and rivals “see Trump and the political culture that created him heralding the decline of American democracy and American culture,” Mr. Shapiro said. That judgment, he added, is “only heightened by the coronavirus response, not just American absence in global leadership but the striking incompetence in dealing with it at home.”¹

Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute of International Relations, said that the debate strengthened the impression “that the United States has retreated from the global stage and withdrawn into itself.” Mr. Trump, he said, “has explicitly walked away from the position of a global leader, and Joe Biden may be implicitly doing so, too.”¹

The bottom line is that it is apparent to the rest of the world that America has ceded its role as leader of the free world.  Further, the damage done by Donald Trump to our international relations will take years to repair, even if Joe Biden wins the election.  What so many of Trump’s supporters fail to understand is that if America pulls up the drawbridge and tries to be an island unto itself, someone is going to fill that vacuum.  The two most likely candidates are China and Russia.  The more that we turn our focus inward and away from our role as a global leader, the stronger China and Russia become. 

Our allies were very concerned about the United States and the future of American democracy before last night’s train wreck.  They are clearly even more concerned now.  If Trump gets reelected, I think there is a better than even chance he will withdraw from NATO.  He has been very vocal about his disdain for the organization and doesn’t seem to grasp its strategic value and significance.  I would be willing to bet that some or all of the members of the EU and NATO are having quiet conversations about this very possibility.  The United States was once looked upon around the world with admiration, respect and, in the case of our adversaries, fear.  Now, after four years of Donald Trump, we are looked at with pity, sadness and disdain.  And there is no doubt that our adversaries are just laughing at this grotesque spectacle. 

Trump claims to be a ‘patriot’ as do most his acolytes.  Given that one of the hallmarks and foundations of American democracy is the conduct of free and fair elections and the peaceful transition of power, the fact that Trump is vocally, dangerously and completely devoid of evidence trying to undermine the credibility of the electoral process shows that he doesn’t give a damn about the United States of America, the Constitution, or American’s role on the world stage.  There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that Trump cares about Trump – period.  Trying to undermine and sow doubt about the electoral process in this country is not an act of patriotism.   You can dress it up in all kinds of slogans and American flags but what Trump is doing is not patriotism.  The rest of the world sees that.  I just don’t understand why so many people in this country choose not to see what is really going on.

I found a couple of quotes that seem appropriate after last nights debate.

Don’t raise your voice, improve your argument.”
[Address at the Nelson Mandela Foundation in Houghton, Johannesburg, South Africa, 23 November 2004]”
― Desmond Tutu

“You can sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic.”
― Robert A. Heinlein, Revolt in 2100/Methuselah’s Children

It seemed pretty obvious last night that Trump was completely ignorant of the first quote and more focused on the second.   He continually raised his voice and offered virtually no substantive arguments.  Additionally, he offered little in the way of logic but always tried to fan the flames of prejudice.  As I said yesterday – a major shit show and an embarrassment to this country in front of the entire world.

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/world/europe/trump-biden-debate-global-reaction.html

I, like many, watched the presidential debate.  I know this will be analyzed ten thousand different ways but for me, I was truly embarrassed to be an American last night.  This ‘debate’ was seen all over the world and this was nothing short of a major shit show that was a total embarrassment.   I thought Biden did OK – not great.  But Trump, as an incumbent president of the United States of America, was an absolute embarrassment to himself, to his party and to this country.   At this point, I really don’t care if it’s a Republican or a Democrat or an Independent or Mr. Ed, the infamous ‘talking horse’ in a 1960’s TV series – this country deserves better. 

In a recent post on Facebook I asked the question, Will we be America? Or will we be Belarus?  The question was in reference to the three months of unrest following the ‘election’ of incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko, who has been ruling Belarus with an iron fist since his election in 1994!  The latest election three months ago was widely regarded as fraudulent and Lukashenko is no longer recognized as the legitimate ruler of Belarus by much of the world, including the United States.  However, Lukashenko is clinging to power with help from his military.  Last night we looked a hell of a lot more like Belarus than the United States of America. 

That was not a debate.  It wasn’t even a circus.  Circuses are designed to entertain and make people smile.  Last night was nothing short of a train wreck that shredded every bit of America’s reputation as a beacon of light and hope for other democracies around the world.  America can no longer claim the title of ‘leader of the free world,’ because of one man – Donald Trump.  The free world does not want to be led by someone who exhibits the temperament of a bully on the kindergarten playground.

There were a couple of big winners from the spectacle last night.  The Proud Boys, a right-wing white supremacist group, now have a new slogan – ‘Stand Back and Stand By” – thanks to Trump. When asked to denounce white supremacy, Trump equivocated like he always does when asked about white supremacists, and finally came up with that line which the Proud Boys immediately jumped on.  Think about that.  On a world stage, the President of the United States cannot or would not made a simple declarative statement denouncing white supremacy.  If you ever had any doubts of Trump’s racist leanings, that should dispel them all.  A truly disgusting low in American presidential politics.

The other big winner from last night was Vladimir Putin and probably President Xi of China and all of our other adversaries.  There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that Putin woke up this morning with a big smile on his face.  All of the US intelligence agencies, backed up by recent statements by FBI Director, Christopher Wray, agree that Russia not only interfered in the 2016 election with the intent of helping Trump, but that they are doing so aggressively now for the 2020 election.  And one of the primary pillars of the Russian strategy is to help sow division amongst Americans and to work to undermine the credibility in the electoral process.   Trump is doing nothing short of aiding and abetting Putin in his work.

Even in spite of the absolutely disgusting performance by Trump last night, some people will continue to tout his policies as the reason they continue to support him.  And one of the biggest arguments you hear is ‘the economy.’  Trump must have made the false statement last night that he has provided over the strongest economy in history numerous times.  So, let’s do a little fact checking.  The Standard & Poor’s index is a widely used barometer of market performance and easy to check.   

The return measured by the S&P during various recent presidencies:  Clinton (210%), Obama (182%), Eisenhower (129%), Reagan (117%), Truman (87%), H.W. Bush (51%), Johnson (46%), Trump (43%)¹.  His touting of his economic policies is just more bombast and not supported by facts.  And now that his tax returns are finally coming out in the open, it is obvious that he is more of a con man than an astute business man.

If you think things will get better under another four years of Trump, you are sadly mistaken.  This country will continue look more and more like Belarus.  The real Donald Trump was on full display last night.  If that’s the man you want leading this country, then go ahead and vote for him.   I am positive he will not win the popular vote and if he gets reelected through any kind chicanery through the electoral college, the House of Representatives, or the Supreme Court then I will have to look at whatever options are available to me.  I would very much like to live in the United States of America.  I will not live in a Belarus ruled over by a spoiled, racist, lying, kindergarten bully. 

1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/#50291008faaf

Will I watch the debate between Trump and Biden tonight or not?  I am torn.  Part of me wants to watch it but every time Trump starts to speak, I just get an adverse visceral reaction in my stomach.  I do have a large supply of Tums so perhaps I’ll risk it!

The airwaves and print news yesterday were alive with stories of Trump’s tax returns.  A lot of the focus has been on the many years he paid no tax and the first two years of his presidency when he paid $750 in Federal income tax.  While that is certainly disturbing, I don’t think that is the biggest issue.  The fact that he has loans coming due within the next four years in the neighborhood of $400 million is a much more troubling issue. 

That could very well be a huge national security risk.  It has been reported and I’ve certainly seen in the books I’ve read that Trump has had trouble getting loans from American banks because, after his six bankruptcies, he was viewed as too big a risk.  So, if these loans are not held by American banks and they are held by foreign entities, the big question is who? 

One of Trump’s ‘go to’ banks after he had trouble with American banks was Deutsche Bank, based in Germany.  Deutsche Bank has had it’s share of troubles and has been accused of some nefarious actions like being involved in Russian money laundering.   Does Deutsche Bank hold these notes?  Do they have leverage over Trump?

In the past, when some were questioning the Trump’s access to money, Eric Trump discussed their access to Russian money. “So, when I got in the cart with Eric,” Dodson says, “as we were setting off, I said, ‘Eric, who’s funding? I know no banks—because of the recession, the Great Recession—have touched a golf course. You know, no one’s funding any kind of golf construction. It’s dead in the water the last four or five years.’ And this is what he said. He said, ‘Well, we don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.’ I said, ‘Really?’ And he said, ‘Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programs. We just go there all the time.’ Now that was three years ago, so it was pretty interesting.”¹ Do some Russians hold these notes?  (That’s a really scary thought but could explain a lot about Trump’s actions with regard to Russia.)

It really doesn’t matter who holds the notes.   One of the first things looked at when deciding whether or not to grant security clearances to people is their finances.   If someone is in a precarious financial situation, it would be a huge red flag to the authorities processing a security clearance.  As I have stated in these posts before, the counter espionage folks use the acronym, MICE:  Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego as a way to describe people who might be motivated to commit crimes against the US.  Money is always a big one.  I would venture a guess that if Trump were to go through the normal security clearance process, given this information, he would never receive a Top Secret clearance, let along the additional accesses he has to the most sensitive intelligence information this country has. 

If Trump owes a huge amount of money to one or more foreign entities, he is subject to being compromised or leveraged.   Further, it is hard to imagine that he would be able to divorce his personal interests from the interests of the United States with that much debt hanging over his head.  This is a very dangerous position for any government person who is granted a security clearance and has access to very sensitive information to be in, let alone the President of the United States.

Trump’s desire to avoid paying taxes is right out of Fred Trump’s (Donald Trump’s father) playbook.  “Though Fred’s business was built on the back of government financing, he loathed paying taxes and would do anything to avoid doing so.”² Like they say, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

Additionally, the fact that Trump wrote off $26 million in ‘consulting fees’ over a period of years including $750,000 to his own daughter, Ivanka, while she was simultaneously employed by the same company that was paying the consulting fees is hysterical in light of all of the grief Trump has given Joe Biden about his son, Hunter.  And the only reason the NYT was able to piece together that the consulting fee went to Ivanka is because it matched up with the disclosure statement that she needed to file because she is working (albeit unpaid) for the government. 

Donald Jr. and Eric are not working for the government so they wouldn’t have to file disclosure statements.  Anyone want to bet that some of the $26 million written off in consulting fees went to them as well?  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least.  This is also a play right out of Fred Trump’s playbook.  He did similar things with his kids for the sole purpose of reducing his taxes.  If I were Ivanka, Eric or Donald Jr. I’d be quaking in my shoes.  I think the entire Trump clan is skating on really thin ice right now.  President Trump may be able to pardon his kids for Federal crimes but he can’t do a damned thing about state crimes.  I predict the Manhattan DA is going to have a heyday!  And first up to bat is Eric Trump. He is being compelled by the court to give a deposition to the New York State AG within the next two weeks.  That should be amusing.  I wonder if he understands the penalties for perjury?  Or perhaps, pathological lying is just a genetic trait.  We’ll see how this all works out. I’m sure it will just be another sordid moment in this ongoing Trump ‘spectacle de merde.’ (It sounds so much nicer in French!)

The thing that scares the hell out of me now is that Trump is really under the gun.  He knows that the only thing standing between him and an indictment is his ability to get reelected.  I felt like he was desperate before but with the disclosure of this financial info in the NYT, he has to be feeling really cornered.  You know what they say about cornered animals.  I would not put anything past him to try to win or steal this election regardless of the consequences or the collateral damage done along the way. 

It will be interesting (and probably depressing) to see what kind of pretzels his Republican Congressional supporters will twist themselves into to try to support and defend Trump in light of all of this info.  When the infamous ‘smoking gun’ tape was released in the Watergate saga, enough Republicans finally saw that defending Nixon was a losing proposition and withdrew their support, leading to Nixon’s resignation.  I wonder, in the current situation, how far Trump has to go before enough Republicans will similarly find their spines, finally put their country before Trump, and hold this man accountable.  [Given the Republican track record over the last four years, I am not hopeful.]

We’re all familiar with the tale of Rumpelstiltskin who spun straw into gold.  We, unfortunately, have President Trumpelstiltskin who spins gold into straw, turns truth into lies, and makes America the laughing stock of the world – a ‘Grimm’ fairytale that we have all had to live with far too long.  It’s time for a new story.

1. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/05/eric-trump-russia-investment-golf-course
2. Too Much and Never Enough, Mary L. Trump, Ph.D., Simon and Schuster, 2020

As promised, I finished Bob Woodward’s book, Rage, over the weekend.  Some words from his book close out this post but I wanted to share some thoughts before we get there.  In a couple of my recent posts I compared Donald Trump to Bernie Madoff and I think with the latest story in the New York Times regarding Trump’s tax returns, that comparison is even more apropos now.  I have said for a long time that Trump is a con man and a fraud.  That seems to be being borne out.  In addition, I have stated that Trump is a bigger threat to our national security than anyone in my lifetime, citing the acronym ‘MICE’ which is used in counter-espionage briefings to detail reasons why people commit crimes against their country.  MICE stands for ‘Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego’ and now that Trump’s true financial picture is finally emerging into the open, it seems like he is a ripe target. If Putin has any idea how much financial jeopardy Trump is in, you can bet Trump is in his crosshairs.

 In a previous post I stated that I believed the only reason that Trump was so desperate to keep his tax returns from being released and to win reelection was because his reelection is the only thing standing between him and the indictment of he and his whole family.   I believe that Trump will have the distinction of being the only president in the history of this country to be indicted and prosecuted once he leaves office. I wonder if prison orange will clash with his hair?  Or I wonder if it’s a good color for Ivanka?  Professor Richardson does a great job of discussing this whole tax return issue.  The link to her blog is below.  I will take a brief deter talking about Woodward’s book.

 “Acirema Fo Setats Detinu” is the ‘United States of America’ spelled backwards and backwards is the direction that I feel this country is going in.  There was a time when America was viewed as being on the forefront of innovation and science and even public policy and human rights.  Now we are abandoning science on an alarming scale and are about to have the most conservative judiciary at any time since 1930.

The Trump administration pulled out of the Paris Accords on climate change and continues to put ‘climate change deniers’ in agencies like the EPA and NOAA when virtually all of the most credible scientists around the world are stating (backed with scientific evidence) that climate change is possibly the most existential threat to the planet of our lifetimes and certainly the lifetimes of our children.

We are in the midst of a global pandemic, have only 4% of the world’s population and 25% of the COVID-related deaths, and rather than let science and medical experts take the lead in how to get this thing under some semblance of control, the current administration is undermining the CDC, NIH and FDA to the point where their entire credibility is questioned.

Although the US has a long and troubled history with discrimination, the Civil Rights Act was passed in 1964.  The decision on Roe v. Wade was handed down in 1972.  And there has been a constant inching forward towards true equality for everyone.  Even the recent Supreme Court decision that said LGBTQ people could not be discriminated against in the work place was another step forward towards true equality for everyone.

Well more than 50% of Americans believe the government is not doing enough to address climate change. That is certainly true of Democrats and ‘Democratic leaning’ independents but even a majority of Republicans believe the government should be doing more.¹

Two thirds of Americans believe that same-sex marriage should be legal.² In addition, “Abortion rights in the U.S. are as popular now as they’ve ever been. Last year, nearly every major poll on abortion rights found support for Roe v. Wade at record highs. A June CBS poll found that nearly two-thirds of Americans want to keep Roe v. Wade’s protections in place, while less than one-third want to overturn them. It wasn’t just Democrats: A strong majority of independents and a plurality of Republicans said they wanted to keep Roe v. Wade around, too”³

So, what the hell is happening?  We have a government being filled with science deniers and a conservative judiciary who will likely start chipping away at all of the rights that have been afforded to various segments of the population over the last 60 years and all of that against the will of the majority of the American populace.   If democracy is supposed to be a government of ‘majority rule’, this is certainly not that.   The simple answer is this is all about power – and how to keep it.

As I stated in an earlier post, the Republican party represents a minority of Americans.  However, they have been able to win and keep control of many state legislatures through gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts.  Once a party that had real platform planks and real strategic goals, the Republican party has become a party focused almost solely on retaining power at all costs.  Just look at who is behind the large majority of lawsuits regarding mail-in voting and other election procedures leading up to this election.  The Republicans.  It’s like the motto has become, “If we can’t win the popular vote, we’ll figure out another way to manipulate the system and the electorate so we can stay in power.”  The hell with fiscal responsibility.  The hell with free trade.   The hell with ‘family values.’  The hell with everything except whatever it takes to stay in power.

After reading Bob Woodward’s latest book, Rage, (and the other books I have read on Trump), it is clear that Trump is not capable of putting together a long-term strategic vision/ plan for the country.  As I have stated before, “Make America Great Again,” is a slogan not a strategy.   He views everything as a monetary transaction, i.e. money will make everything better – at least for those who have it.

When Woodward pressed him repeatedly about his response to the pandemic, his standard response was to talk about the economy and the stock market.  When Woodward pressed him about the issues surrounding the Black Lives Matter movement and all of the protests in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, he went to his standard (and provably false) rhetoric about how he has done more for black Americans in this country than any president since Abraham Lincoln.  It’s like his entire world view revolves around the economy and the stock market.

The whole concept of ‘leading’ implies moving forward.   Trump is not a leader and as a result, the country is drifting and, in fact, worse than that, the country is drifting backwards.  There is no vision.  There is no plan.  As you may recall, there was no ‘Republican platform’ outlining a vision for the future coming out of the Republican convention.  It was basically – “whatever Trump wants to do”.  And since Trump does not have a strategic vision, the entire Republican ‘vision’ or ‘strategy’ has devolved into ‘whatever it takes to stay in power.’  [It will be interesting to see all of the rationalizations coming out of the Republicans now that Trump’s image as ‘astute business mogul’ has been blown to hell!]

I am going to end this post with some final words from the epilogue in Bob Woodward’s book.  And remember, in addition to all of the other individuals he interviewed for this book, Woodward conducted 17 interviews with Trump himself, 16 of those recorded (with permission) and 1 with note taking by Woodward.  During one of these interviews in February of this year, Trump made a statement to the effect that “there is dynamite behind every door.”  So, in Bob Woodward’s words:

“But now, I’ve come to the conclusion that the “dynamite behind the door” was in plain sight.  It was Trump himself.  The oversized personality.  The failure to organize.  The lack of discipline.  The lack of trust in others he had picked, in experts.  The undermining or the attempted undermining of so many American institutions.  The failure to be a calming, healing voice.  The unwillingness to acknowledge error.  The failure to do his homework.  The extend the olive branch.  To listen carefully to others.  To craft a plan.

Mattis, Tillerson and Coats are all conservatives or apolitical people who wanted to help him and the country.  Imperfect men who answered the call to public service.  They were not the deep state.  Yet each departed with cruel words from their leader.  They concluded that Trump was an unstable threat to their country.  Think about that for a moment:  The top national security leaders thought the president of the United States was a danger to the country.”….

“When his performance as president is taken in its entirety, I can only reach one conclusion:  Trump is the wrong man for the job.”⁴

And this from a man who has written about nine presidents and shared two Pulitzer prizes for his work.

1. https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2019/11/25/u-s-public-views-on-climate-and-energy/
2. https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx
3. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/majority-americans-support-abortion-access.html
4. Rage, Bob Woodward, Simon & Schuster, 2020
5.  Letters from an American, Heather Cox Richardson’s blog

This will be short today because 1) I am tired and 2) I need to go rip out my kitchen counter to get ready for the install guys showing up on Tuesday with a new counter.  I only have about 50 pages left to finish Rage, Bob Woodward’s latest book on Trump.  I will have more comments when I finish.  I will just preface those comments by saying that after reading this book and the books by John Bolton, Mary Trump and Michael Cohen I am full of RAGE that this man is in the Oval Office.  And I’m also full of RAGE that people, particularly on Capitol Hill, continue to enable and defend him.  But, like I said, I will have more comments when I finish the book.

What do John Quincy Adams (1824), Rutherford B. Hayes (1876), Benjamin Harrison (1888), George W. Bush (2000), and Donald J. Trump (2016) all have in common?  They are the five presidents who have lost the popular vote and won the election through the electoral college.  Given that the electoral college is likely to place an extraordinarily important role in this year’s presidential election, it seems to me that we should all become more familiar with this institution and how it works (or doesn’t.)  To that end, I have included the link below about the electoral college and some of the pitfalls¹.

There is no doubt that Trump’s ‘win strategy’ involves contesting the election results at every turn with the ultimate hope that it will end up in the Supreme Court similar to what happened in the Bush/Gore election of 2000.   And, no doubt, many of the lawsuits will involve mail-in ballots, selection of electors for the electoral college and possibly ‘faithless electors.’   The electoral college does not meet to cast their ballots to officially ‘elect’ the president until December, and you can bet that whatever the results are on election night, Nov. 3^rd, they will be challenged.  So, the more we all know about the electoral college, the better we will be able to follow along as this misadventure in American democracy plays out.

The best way to ensure that Trump’s attempts to undermine the election results don’t stand up is to ensure a Biden blowout.  If Trump continues to focus his attention on winning the election rather than dealing with the COVID crisis, that is a distinct possibility.  All of the health experts are predicting this crisis will worsen over the fall and winter months which means that more Americans will die in unprecedented numbers.  Trump’s reckless handling of the pandemic (pretty evident in Woodward’s book) and his cavalier dismissal of tens of thousands of Americans dying will be a hard thing to overcome – even in the courts.  No doubt the historians will be writing about this chapter in American electoral politics for years to come.  We’ll see how it plays out.

Have a great weekend and be safe.  See you on Monday with comments on Woodward’s book.

I have also included the link to Professor Richardson’s blog.  Always excellent.

1. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/why-we-should-abolish-the_1_b_8961256#:~:text=Problems%20with%20the%20Electoral%20College%201%201%29%20The,of%20the%20Popular%20Vote.%204%204%29%20Faithless%20Electors.
2. Letters from an American.  (Heather Cox Richardson)

One of the scenarios that Bernard Gellman outlined in his article in The Atlantic about how Trump will try to subvert this election and squeeze out a victory describes how governors in Republican controlled states will declare the election results in their respective states ‘tainted’ due to allegations of fraud.  In such a scenario, the governors would then appoint their own slate of electors for the electoral college rather than let the popular vote dictate the electors. For example, in state X, if it was a close race (or not) and it looked like Biden was going to win, the Republican governor would state that the results were invalid and then appoint Trump electors rather than Biden electors.  Sound far-fetched here in the United States of America, the former beacon of democracy around the world? Perhaps not so much, given that Trump is so desperate to win and it is becoming more and more difficult to find a Republican willing to put principles before Trump.

In such a scenario, the Democrats would obviously litigate that action, but if it goes to the Supreme Court and the court has been packed with Trump appointees, who knows how they will rule.   One would like to think that the Supreme Court would be non-partisan but these days when everything, including even the wearing of a mask to help slow the spread of a virus, has become politicized, who knows?

Just for the sake of argument, lets assume that scenario plays out in one or more battleground states and allows Trump to claim victory.  How do you think people will react?  My guess is not very well.  I would bet that in such a scenario, if the vote appeared to go to Biden and through political chicanery, the state magically flipped for Trump, I can imagine that people would take to the streets to protest.

One can also imagine that those protests would be met with local police and perhaps even Federal officers.  Or even worse, Trump could unleash his ‘supporters’ who tend to be heavily armed, akin to Mussolini’s black shirts.  This election has all of the makings of being one of the most contested and possibly one of the most violent elections in the history of this country.   Let’s hope not, but it is possible.

Even if no governor had the nerve to try such a stunt and Biden won a close victory, Trump has primed all of his acolytes to not believe the results of the election so they could well take to the streets in protest.  Of course, it is highly unlikely Trump or Bill Barr would order Federal troops to intervene in such a situation.  Just imagine a host of MAGA wearing protestors, armed to the teeth, marching through the streets.  Such a scenario would make Mussolini proud!

I’m sure there are those who think I’m being a bit overdramatic.  Michael Cohen, who worked closely with Trump for over a decade doesn’t think it’s too far-fetched.  He is on record stating that he does not believe Trump will relinquish power peacefully in 2020.   I tend to agree with him based upon everything I have read.     

Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham have both issued statements that there will be an orderly transition of power.  Graham, however, added the caveat, “If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Joe Biden, I will accept that result,” leaving one to believe that he thinks (hopes) that this election will ultimately be decided in the court rather than at the ballot boxes.  Given the history of each of those individuals enabling and defending Trump, I personally think their statements are worthless.  They both abandoned their principles and credibility a long time ago.

There was an election in Belarus, a former Soviet republic, about 7 weeks ago and there have been massive protests ever since.  President Lukashenko was seeking his 6^th term in office having ruled this authoritarian regime for 26 years.  The protests are in response to wide-spread accusations of vote-rigging that allowed Lukashenko to garner 80% of the votes!  Hundreds of protestors have been arrested and there have been violent clashes with police.  The protests intensified recently after Lukashenko was secretly sworn in. 

So, will the United States follow suit and be on a par with Belarus?  And think about this.  Trump has ‘joked’ about staying in office beyond two terms.  Lukashenko is on his 6^th term.  Once an authoritarian ruler gets in, it’s really hard to get them out!  It is in our constitution that a president can only serve two terms.  So what?  Trump will just look at that as a challenge and yet another thing to circumvent.  As I have stated many times in these posts, there any many examples throughout the world of authoritarian rulers who were elected legitimately but once in office, set about changing the rules so they could stay in power.

We can always hope there will ultimately be a peaceful transition of power, but I think there isn’t a chance in hell that we will ever hear anything like the following coming out of Trump’s mouth if he were to contest this election and lose.  This was from Nixon’s speech when he announced his intention to resign.

“By taking this action,” he said in a solemn address from the Oval Office, “I hope that I will have hastened the start of the process of healing which is so desperately needed in America.” (Richard Nixon. Aug. 8, 1974)

Trump using the word ‘healing’ would be akin to Superman using a coffee cup made of kryptonite. 

I started writing these posts some time ago as a venue to give me a place to express my feelings and frustrations.  I wrote most of this post last night before I read Professor Richardson’s post today (link at the bottom of this post).  After reading her post, what I wrote last night seems even more relevant – at least to me.  Today, rather than focus on yet another tirade against Trump, William Barr, Mitch McConnell, or the many other toadies in Trump’s orbit, I thought I would just write about what I, personally, am feeling and thinking.  Please excuse the self-indulgence.  I know there is currently an epidemic of that going around.

I have been spending more and more time lately thinking about the possibly that Trump might win through the electoral college, through the House of Representatives, through the Supreme Court [ which will now be packed with Conservative judges] or through whatever means he can. (And after reading Professor Richardson’s post, it seems even more real.)  I am pretty confident that Trump will not win the popular vote but there are multiple other ways he can squeeze out a victory.  Or, even if he loses, he could refuse to relinquish power.  That would certainly be something to watch.  But if any of these scenarios happens, I keep wondering what, if anything, will I do.

It is hard for me to imagine what another four years under Trump will be like but none of the scenarios I envision are good.  There is no doubt that there will be a continued roll back of all kinds of environmental regulations.  With a packed Supreme Court, there could very well be roll backs to gay rights, women’s rights and civil rights in general.  There is little doubt that Roe v Wade would be overturned.  White supremacists would feel more emboldened and would become a bigger part of our culture than they already are.  Trump would continue to pack the government with people whose sole qualification would be loyalty to him.  And, no doubt, Attorney General Barr would embark on more misadventures to help Trump and his friends while at the same time using the DOJ to go after Trump’s real or perceived enemies. 

There is a very real possibility that the ACA could be overturned or completely gutted, leaving millions of people without health insurance.  And it is not out of the realm of possibility that Social Security and Medicare could see substantial cuts.  It is also very possible that Trump could be emboldened enough to deploy even more Federal officers into cities, whether they are invited or not.   We must not forget also, that Trump’s admiration for people like Putin could blossom into something even more sinister.  In short, this could become a full-fledged authoritarian regime.

It’s not a pretty picture.  This would not be the America I grew up in.  So, the real question for me and what has been weighing on my mind is, “What would I do?”  I am just not sure I am mentally prepared for another four years of watching Trump sow division and hate as he destroys this once proud country and we become, not a beacon of hope for the rest of the world, but a subject of ridicule, pity and scorn around the world.

Never before during my lifetime, have I felt so invested in an election.  I have always voted and sometimes my candidate won and sometimes they lost but I never felt the desperation that I now feel.  So, I keep asking myself what will I do.

Part of me says to just hunker down on my little acre near Bozeman and try to focus on other things and ride it out.  I could take more welding classes and build large metal sculptures.  I could build that waterwheel I have been threatening to build.  I have been accepted to the Graduate School of Mathematics here at MSU to pursue my PhD which I have always regretted not getting but I deferred my acceptance for a year because of COVID.  I could cloud my mind with mathematics to try to drowned out the political noise. 

However, another part of me says that maybe its time to think about moving out of the country for a while. I have lived overseas before.  I lived in Kuwait for a year and a half.  I lived in France for 7 months.  I have been fortunate to have travelled extensively and seen a lot of nice (and some not so nice) places in the world.  Maybe its time to think about an extended ‘walkabout’ as they say Down Under.  Maybe its time to find another small corner of the world, explore a different culture and find something else to write about.

There are some serious considerations that will factor into all of this.  I won’t be going anywhere until this COVID mess gets under better control and there is, hopefully, and effective vaccine.  And, of course, there is my daughter that I will need to think about.  She will be graduating this coming spring and her plan is to head off to medical school – somewhere.   There is also my house in Bozeman – sell it, lease it?  I really like Bozeman and my house so that would be a tough decision.

I know this might all seem crazy but its not.  Like I said, I just don’t know if I’m up for another 4 years of ‘Trumpism’.   That’s how bad it has gotten.  I just detest waking up every day knowing that, in all likelihood, another brick has been pulled from the foundation of our democracy.  What adds to my distress even more is the number of people, inside and outside the government, who rabidly support and enable him.  I have read at least four books written by people close to Trump and they all tell the same ugly story.   I just don’t understand how people can support this man.  In my opinion, he is just a much more dangerous version of Bernie Madoff who happens to have the nuclear codes.

I understand that every country has their own unique problems and no place is perfect.  But maybe if Trump wins, it will just be good to have a change of pace for a while.  I actually have books beside my bed about retiring in different countries around the world.   I have never been one who was wedded to a particular place.  I have lived happily in many different places – Montana, LA, San Jose, Hawaii, Kuwait, France, New York City – any place is just what you make of it. 

In any case, that’s kind of where my head is now.  It’s a pretty sad commentary on the state of the country these days.  My guess is that there are others like myself who are having the exact same thoughts and it’s a formidable thing to contemplate.  Would I really leave the country?  Would I really uproot my whole life and head off to somewhere new?  Who knows, I’ve done it before.  How do you think I got to Montana?

My apologies again for the self-indulgent rant.  But facts are facts, and those are the kind of thoughts that are rattling around in my head these days.   I just know that if Trump wins reelection something in my life will have to change.  I just refuse to do this for another four years.  Stay tuned. 

 Letters from an American    (Heather Cox Richardson)