One of the scenarios that Bernard Gellman outlined in his article in The Atlantic about how Trump will try to subvert this election and squeeze out a victory describes how governors in Republican controlled states will declare the election results in their respective states ‘tainted’ due to allegations of fraud. In such a scenario, the governors would then appoint their own slate of electors for the electoral college rather than let the popular vote dictate the electors. For example, in state X, if it was a close race (or not) and it looked like Biden was going to win, the Republican governor would state that the results were invalid and then appoint Trump electors rather than Biden electors. Sound far-fetched here in the United States of America, the former beacon of democracy around the world? Perhaps not so much, given that Trump is so desperate to win and it is becoming more and more difficult to find a Republican willing to put principles before Trump.
In such a scenario, the Democrats would obviously litigate that action, but if it goes to the Supreme Court and the court has been packed with Trump appointees, who knows how they will rule. One would like to think that the Supreme Court would be non-partisan but these days when everything, including even the wearing of a mask to help slow the spread of a virus, has become politicized, who knows?
Just for the sake of argument, lets assume that scenario plays out in one or more battleground states and allows Trump to claim victory. How do you think people will react? My guess is not very well. I would bet that in such a scenario, if the vote appeared to go to Biden and through political chicanery, the state magically flipped for Trump, I can imagine that people would take to the streets to protest.
One can also imagine that those protests would be met with local police and perhaps even Federal officers. Or even worse, Trump could unleash his ‘supporters’ who tend to be heavily armed, akin to Mussolini’s black shirts. This election has all of the makings of being one of the most contested and possibly one of the most violent elections in the history of this country. Let’s hope not, but it is possible.
Even if no governor had the nerve to try such a stunt and Biden won a close victory, Trump has primed all of his acolytes to not believe the results of the election so they could well take to the streets in protest. Of course, it is highly unlikely Trump or Bill Barr would order Federal troops to intervene in such a situation. Just imagine a host of MAGA wearing protestors, armed to the teeth, marching through the streets. Such a scenario would make Mussolini proud!
I’m sure there are those who think I’m being a bit overdramatic. Michael Cohen, who worked closely with Trump for over a decade doesn’t think it’s too far-fetched. He is on record stating that he does not believe Trump will relinquish power peacefully in 2020. I tend to agree with him based upon everything I have read.
Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham have both issued statements that there will be an orderly transition of power. Graham, however, added the caveat, “If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Joe Biden, I will accept that result,” leaving one to believe that he thinks (hopes) that this election will ultimately be decided in the court rather than at the ballot boxes. Given the history of each of those individuals enabling and defending Trump, I personally think their statements are worthless. They both abandoned their principles and credibility a long time ago.
There was an election in Belarus, a former Soviet republic, about 7 weeks ago and there have been massive protests ever since. President Lukashenko was seeking his 6th term in office having ruled this authoritarian regime for 26 years. The protests are in response to wide-spread accusations of vote-rigging that allowed Lukashenko to garner 80% of the votes! Hundreds of protestors have been arrested and there have been violent clashes with police. The protests intensified recently after Lukashenko was secretly sworn in.
So, will the United States follow suit and be on a par with Belarus? And think about this. Trump has ‘joked’ about staying in office beyond two terms. Lukashenko is on his 6th term. Once an authoritarian ruler gets in, it’s really hard to get them out! It is in our constitution that a president can only serve two terms. So what? Trump will just look at that as a challenge and yet another thing to circumvent. As I have stated many times in these posts, there any many examples throughout the world of authoritarian rulers who were elected legitimately but once in office, set about changing the rules so they could stay in power.
We can always hope there will ultimately be a peaceful transition of power, but I think there isn’t a chance in hell that we will ever hear anything like the following coming out of Trump’s mouth if he were to contest this election and lose. This was from Nixon’s speech when he announced his intention to resign.
“By taking this action,” he said in a solemn address from the Oval Office, “I hope that I will have hastened the start of the process of healing which is so desperately needed in America.” (Richard Nixon. Aug. 8, 1974)
Trump using the word ‘healing’ would be akin to Superman using a coffee cup made of kryptonite.
Scary! Bye, bye, Miss America pie…