One of the key principles of the mathematical branch known as ‘chaos theory’ is that complex, dynamic systems are very sensitive to the initial conditions. Trump’s whole effort to restrict mail-in voting is designed to change the initial conditions for this election. It’s all about the math.
Trump’s attack on mail-in voting found its way to little old Montana. Yesterday, the Bozeman Chronicle ran a piece stating that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party have sued the State of Montana about Governor Bullock’s recent decision to let all counties in the state conduct the November election by mail if they choose to do so, primarily because of the pandemic. Governor Bullock (Democrat) and Secretary of State, Corey Stapleton (Republican) were named in the suit. Counties have until today to notify Stapleton how they intend to conduct the election but thus far, 42 of 56 counties, have indicated they intend to conduct the election via mail.
The primary election was conducted my mail, was supported by both parties in the state and went off without a hitch. Prior to Governor Bullock’s decision, people in Montana could vote by mail but they need to request to do so. It’s not automatic. I will certainly be voting by mail like I have done in every election for decades.
This whole lawsuit just defies logic. Trump carried Montana by about 20 points in 2016. The state, as a whole, is pretty ‘red’. The state is also very large and very rural. And in November, the weather is always a big question mark – anything from bright sunny days to 6 inches of snow on the ground. For a lot of ranchers and farmers, ‘going into town’ can be a bit of a journey. Presumably, most of those folks request absentee ballots and vote by mail. If not, getting to a polling place takes some effort. Odds are, most of those voters are Republican – why would Trump make it harder for them to vote?
The city of Bozeman, where I live, is home to Montana State University and Missoula is the home of University of Montana. These are probably the two most liberal cities in the state. If mail-in voting is restricted, it will be much easier for all of the Democrats in these two cities to get to a polling place than for people in many of the more rural areas. On the surface, it would seem that Trump would be encouraging mail-in voting in a place like Montana.
The big ‘X’ factor is the fact that we have a Democratic Governor in Steve Bullock and Steve is challenging Republican incumbent Steve Daines for his Senate seat. Until last year, everyone thought Montana was solidly in the ‘red’ column. Although Montana (with its three electoral votes) will still likely go for Trump, the Senate race is turning into a real horse race and there is fear on the Republican side that Bullock, who is a fairly popular governor, could unseat Steve Daines for the Senate. That would give Montana two Democratic Senators. Jon Tester is the other but he is not up for reelection right now.
However you slice it, I just fail to see the logic in why the Trump organization and the Republican Party are fighting to restrict voting access here in Montana. It would seem, given the demographics of the state, that they would want to do exactly the opposite.
I can only imagine that Trump is scared to death and is looking to squeeze out every last electoral vote. Montana, with its three electoral votes, is hardly a ‘battle ground’ state. I think it shows the depth of concern that Trump has given his current poll standings.
Trump and the Republican Party try to sell the notion that mail-in voting is subject to fraud. This in spite of the fact that there is no evidence that mail-in voting leads to wide spread voter fraud. So, what’s really behind all of this nonsense? Think about it. In the last election, Trump lost the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes but was able to squeak out a ‘win’ due to the vagaries of the electoral college. Since that time, Trump has done nothing to try to expand his ‘base’.
Trump is going for the same bloc of voters that got him elected last time. However, many things have changed since 2016 including the demographics in the country. There are more eligible voters now and the make up of the electorate has changed. When you superimpose the pandemic and the resulting economic impacts on top of that and the effect those have had on the electorate, it’s pretty easy to conclude that the Trump ‘base’ is a smaller percentage of the eligible voters than last time around.
If the Trump base is a smaller percentage of the overall electorate than it was last time, then the best way to try to even the odds is to restrict the total number of people who can vote. And that is exactly what is going on. This whole charade has absolutely nothing to do with election security. It has everything to do with the math!
There was a time when elections were fought based upon policies, vision and character. These days, elections, and particularly this one, will be won or lost based on money, manipulation and mathematics. Let’s just hope that this election won’t be won using ‘alternate math’ the way that much of this administration has been based upon ‘alternate facts.’
Good article! I’m surprised that you didn’t include fuzzy logic.