I wrote something yesterday and decided not to post it. It wasn’t all that controversial but after I reread it, it just didn’t seem that cogent and worth anyone’s time. Hopefully, today will be better.
I was listening to a conversation involving Carl Bernstein yesterday morning and he said something that concerned me and, for anyone who gives one whit about our democracy and the Constitution, should concern them as well. As you may recall, Carl Bernstein was one of the key figures in exposing the Watergate scandal surrounding former President Richard Nixon, ultimately leading to his resignation. I don’t think anyone would doubt that he has pretty good connections around Washington, D.C. with some extending into the White House.
During the conversation, Bernstein said that he was aware of discussions amongst some of Trump’s aides about trying to throw the election into the House of Representatives. This was a surprise to me and I’m sure many others (who perhaps learned this in some long past political science or government course and promptly forgot about it) who were not aware that this is a possibility. It has occurred before. That is how John Quincy Adams was ‘elected’ over Andrew Jackson to become the sixth president of the United States.
The Constitution provides that, in the event that no candidate attains a sufficient number of electoral votes, the decision as to who becomes president gets deferred to the House of Representatives. And why is that particularly scary? – the Constitution mandates that each state act as a single voting block and that a simple majority vote is required to ‘win’. Given that there are 26 ‘Republican’ states and 24 ‘Democratic’ states, if this election were to go to the House of Representatives it doesn’t take a genius to figure out who the probable winner would be – Trump!
Farfetched – think again. “The contested 1876 presidential election between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes of Ohio and Democrat Samuel J. Tilden of New York was the last to require congressional intervention. Tilden won the popular vote and the electoral count. But Republicans challenged the results in three Southern states, which submitted certificates of election for both candidates. While the Constitution requires the House and Senate to formally count the certificates of election in joint session, it is silent on what Congress should do to resolve disputes. In January 1877, Congress established the Federal Electoral Commission to investigate the disputed Electoral College ballots. The bipartisan commission, which included Representatives, Senators, and Supreme Court Justices, voted along party lines to award all the contested ballots to Hayes—securing the presidency for him by a single electoral vote. The Commission’s controversial results did not spark the violence in the post-Civil War South that some had feared largely because Republicans had struck a compromise with Southern Democrats to remove federal soldiers from the South and end Reconstruction in the event of a Hayes victory.”1 [The bolding is mine]
Think about it. We now have a president who is desperate to stay in office and is lagging in the polls. He has already tried to sabotage the post office and continues to cast doubts on the integrity of the elections results. He also has a long history of trying to solve problems and intimidate people with law suits. If this election is at all close, and perhaps even if its not, there will be a ton of lawsuits to challenge the vote. It is not unthinkable that all of these challenges could throw this thing into the House of Representatives. If that were to happen, Trump could literally steal this election regardless of the popular vote and regardless of the initial electoral college vote. If that doesn’t scare the crap out of you, I don’t know what will.
We already know that just because someone wins the popular vote, that does not guarantee victory. It is the electoral college vote that counts. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 3,000,000+ votes but Trump was elected due to his winning the vote in the electoral college. Even the voting in the electoral college is not cut and dried because we must now worry about ‘faithless electors’ which are defined as members of the electoral college who do not vote for the candidate for whom they are pledged to vote. Recent instances of faithless electors have been litigated in court. (Are you seeing a theme here?)
Just like so many people underestimated and continue to underestimate the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, I don’t think many people have a clue how close to the brink we are of losing this democracy. It’s too easy to just dismiss these things coming out of Trump and his camp as just ‘talk’ and comfort ourselves with a quick, ‘that could never happen.’ It has happened and it could very well happen again. I have pointed out in these blogs several times that many authoritarian regimes began when a potential despot was voted into office in an election. And despots stay in power by packing courts, trampling on constitutions, and rigging elections.
Right now, there are huge demonstrations in Belarus which just held an election. The current President, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power since 1994 and the latest ‘official’ election results show Lukashenko with 80% of the vote. That should throw up all kinds of red flags. It is beyond comprehension, given the huge demonstrations that are now sweeping Belarus, that 80% of the voters actually support Lukashenko. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested and Lukashenko has ordered an even more brutal crackdown. Think this can’t happen in America – we are on this path!
The President has already shown a willingness to deploy Federal troops against protesters in the name of ‘law and order.’ He has repeatedly shown a willingness to completely bypass Congress and disregard the Constitution and the rule of law. Mitch McConnell has been busy as hell packing the courts with conservative judges (some of whom have been deemed as unqualified by the American Bar Association). Trump is a well-documented liar. He has shown in his actions and it has been attested to by many people who know him and have worked with him, that he is concerned only with himself and his reelection. So, if you think that Trump and his camp are not willing or capable of trying to encourage some ‘faithless electors’ and/or throw this election into the House of Representatives should it appear that he will lose – think again. We are in very treacherous territory. I hope everyone understands what is really at stake here. This could very well be the most consequential election in our lifetimes and the results will have resounding consequences for decades.
Scary!!